ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: New COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to -0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (-1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000). CONCLUSIONS: The United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Public Health Surveillance , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Longitudinal StudiesABSTRACT
This paper aims to assess the European tax havens in terms of corporate financial misconduct risks. The study relies on an index method developed by a group of economists belonging to the international non-governmental organization - the Tax Justice Network. The method allowed the authors to calculate the Corporate Tax Harbor Index (CTHI) and determine the role of a particular jurisdiction in global corporate financial misconduct risks. The study established a ranking of European tax havens and jurisdictions with features of tax havens and classified these tax havens based on corporate financial misconduct risks. The study found that European tax havens and tax haven jurisdictions accounted for nearly 40% of global corporate financial misuse risks in 2020. The classification of European tax havens according to corporate financial misconduct risks demonstrated that the Netherlands, Switzerland, the UK, Ireland, and Luxembourg accounted for more than half of the risks. The shares of Liechtenstein (1%), Monaco (1%), Andorra, and San Marino (less than 1%) did not exceed 3% of the European share of the global risk. The results show the need for adjustments to the regulatory policy of international organizations currently focused on fighting classic tax havens. Their real share of global misuse risks is very small compared to the share of 'gray cardinals' of the offshore market.
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Purpose: The aim is to evaluate the relationships between the number of cases, deaths and tests in countries in the COVID-19 outbreak and the countries' Gini coefficients, elderly population rates, distances to the equator and global health security indexes. Materials and methods: In this ecological study conducted in August 2020, the data reported on the Worldometers website on the prevalence of the COVID-19 outbreak were used. The relationship between COVID-19 related variables of countries and Gini coefficients, elderly population ratios, distance from the equator and global health security indexes were examined. Results: 215 countries were evaluated in the study. Qatar is the country with the highest number of cases per million;San Marino has the highest number of deaths per million and Monaco has the highest number of tests per million. As a result of the linear regression analysis, the Gini coefficients of the countries were associated with the total number of cases per million, the elderly population ratios were associated with the total number of deaths per million, and distance to the equator was associated with the total number of tests per million. As the Gini coefficients of the countries increase, the total number of cases per million (p=0.006);as the elderly population rates increase, deaths per million (p=0.005);as the distance from the equator increases, the number of tests per million (p=0.015) increases. Conclusion: As a result, as income inequality, elderly population and distance from the equator increase, the impact from the pandemic increases. Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, Gini coefficient, global health security index.
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Background: Gam-COVID-Vac is the world's first registered vector vaccine against COVID-19 based on a combination of two heterologous adenoviruses. It was chosen by the Republic of San Marino as the main tool in its vaccination campaign, which started on 25 February 2021. Our aim was to build up on the ROCCA study, focused on the older population, by describing adverse effects following immunisation (AEFIs) rates and characteristics in all age groups for the first time in a real-world context. Methods: An active surveillance study on recipients of at least one dose of the Gam-COVID-Vac vaccine was conducted. Participants were administered online questionnaires through live/phone interviews with physicians, by e-mail or by scanning a QR code at different points in time after the first dose: one week (Q1) one month (Q2), and three months (Q3) between March and August 2021. Findings: Overall, 6190 vaccine recipients were recruited. Mean age was 52·4 ± 18·2 years. After the first dose, systemic reactions were reported by 57·5% of the participants, while injection site reactions were reported by 46·7%. The most common AEFIs were pain at the injection site, fatigue and headache. Grade 3 or 4 AEFIs were reported by 0·8% and 0·3% of the participants, respectively. After the second dose, systemic reactions were reported by 63·1% of the participants, while injection site reactions by 54·7%. The most common AEFIs were malaise, pain at injection site and myalgia. Grade 3 or 4 AEFIs were reported by 2·7% and 1·1% of the participants, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed younger age, being a woman and food allergies are risk factors for more severe AEFIs. Interpretation: Our results confirm a good tolerability profile for the population aged 18 and over providing useful data for vaccination campaigns ongoing in countries planning to use Gam-COVID-Vac. Funding: None.
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In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily new cases of COVID-19 in San Marino. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in San Marino for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily new cases of COVID-19 in the country. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in San Marino are likely to significantly decline over the out-of-sample period. We, however;still recommend that the government of San Mario should ensure adherence to lock-down measures while creating massive awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic as well as scaling up vaccinations.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In August 2020, Sputnik V was registered as Gam-COVID-Vac by the Russian Ministry of Health, and since December 2020 it has been distributed in 61 countries worldwide. On 25 February 2021, the Republic of San Marino started its vaccination campaign, which includes Sputnik V. Our aim was to describe the adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) with this vaccine through participant-based active surveillance in the country. METHODS: Beginning from 4 March to 8 April 2021, a nationwide study was conducted on San Marino's population aged 18-89 years who received one or two doses of Sputnik V. E-questionnaire dissemination occurred through e-mails, QR-codes or live/phone interviews ~7 days after the first and second vaccine dose. A descriptive analysis was conducted to quantify AEFI incidence on both occasions, stratifying results by type and severity of symptoms. FINDINGS: Mean age of the 2558 vaccine recipients was 66±14 years. First-dose AEFI incidence was 53.3% (systemic reactions at 42.2%), while second-dose AEFI incidence was 66.8% (systemic reactions at 50.4%) (n = 1288). In general, 76.0% of two-dose recipients reported some AEFIs after either vaccine dose, and 2.1% suffered severe reactions; in 60- to 89-year-olds (n = 1021), AEFI incidence was 70.0%, with 53.0% of subjects describing systemic reactions and 0.8% reporting severe symptoms. The most frequent symptoms were local pain, asthenia, headache and joint pain. INTERPRETATION: Our results, albeit preliminary, suggest that Sputnik V has a high tolerability profile in the population aged ≥60 years in terms of short-term AEFIs. FUNDING: None.